Kerala 2021 — Deep Dive — Kuttiady

Kuttiady — this Kozhikode Assembly Constituency(AC) consists of 8 Grama Panchayats(GP) and is part of Vatakara Parlimentary Constituency (PC). Highly engaged constituency - 85%+ turnouts. We roughly estimate 1.9 lakh voters in this AC.

Swingability

Kuttiyadi has scope for major swing. LDF performs well at LSG level elections and INC at PC level. AC has swung wildly bucking the statewide trend. This AC was formed after 2008 delimitation. LDF won the first election in 2011. UDF swung the seat back in 2016 defeating the incumbent. IUML candidate won the election by thinnest of margin — 1157 votes (0.75%). This year, LDF has allocated this seat to KC(M) (Muhammad Iqbal) who will fight the battle against IUML opponent. There are reports of protests by CPI(M) dissidents with this seat sharing arrangement.

INC have held on to the parent Vatakara Parlimentary seat for last three times and historically CPI(M) had fared well here from 1996 to 2004.

LDF won 74 out of 138 wards in 2020 LSG GP elections and 2 out 2 district panchayat election — in the process have racked up 47% of votes.

The LDF and UDF vote share varies in the band of 43% — 49% and BJP is pegging right at 6–7%. Welfare Party and SDPI has small vote share of <1% and they could play a role in a tight election.

Factors

• Turnout: LDF absolute vote numbers have stayed steady at 70K. A lower turnout would benefit LDF.
• Panchayats: UDF has been gaining ground consistently in Purameri and Velom panchayats. They need to over-perform in Maniyur and Vilyappalli to hold the seat. Ayyanchery is trending perfectly for LDF but they need to regain the votes in Thiruvallur to stay in competetion.

Our Prediction

Our KA140 model predicts Kuttiady is a TOSSUP and Strongly Leaning UDF. UDF wins by 2% to 7% margin. LDF needs to pull a rabbit from the hat. The seat arrangement ruckus doesn’t help.